Elder statesman, Alhaji Tanko Yakassai, shares with AYOOLA OLASUPO his expectations about the forthcoming elections, his fears about rigging and assessment of the current regime
In the statement you issued on Sunday, you warned that there might be a catastrophe if the forthcoming elections were rigged, do you have an idea of those plotting to rig the polls?
My belief is that if the election is conducted freely and fairly, nothing will stop (Asiwaju Bola Ahmed) Tinubu, the candidate of the All Progressives Congress, from winning the election but I see some bigwigs expressing disapproval of his ambition. Some of them are within the APC and some are in opposition parties. My belief is that such people, if they find it difficult to win the election, may resort to malpractices, which may include rigging. That is why I made the warning just to alert the nation to this possibility that everybody should get prepared to prevent anybody thinking of taking over power through rigging or military coup. It is just a note of warning to the nation or a wake-up call.
The Independent National Electoral Commission has given assurances that with the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System it introduced, it’s almost impossible to rig the elections, aren’t you confident of INEC’s assurances?
I didn’t need assurance from INEC. What I know is that they are doing their best. There is a saying in Hausa, mai son abun ka yafi ka dabara. What they mean is that a man who is interested in taking your food away from you should be cleverer.
Some people are of the view that the aggrieved G-5 governors in the Peoples Democratic Party working against Atiku Abubakar may further limit his chances. What do you think?
I am not in any political party and since I am not in the same political party with them, it will be very difficult for me to make any predictions.
Tinubu visited you as far back as November 2021…
I said it a long time ago that Tinubu came to my house with his clear interest and told me that I am one of the people he thought would bring about his desires, intention and interest to contest the 2023 presidential election. He appealed for my support and I gave him the assurance of my support and I am still on it. I met governors in support of his candidature and ambition.
What if other candidates from the opposition parties visit you?
Till today nobody who is interested in the presidency other than Tinubu has approached me for support. Maybe they know me well enough that I won’t change my mind. That was why they gave up. No single person approached me for support and I have made up my mind that I will support Tinubu till the end of the election.
Governor Nasir El-Rufai of Kaduna State and former Sokoto State governor, Attahiru Bafarawa, disagreed last week over northern votes. Can you predict who will have the highest votes from the North among the 18 candidates?
I don’t see any candidate taking maybe 70 per cent of the total northern votes in this election. I know many of the votes will be shared and at worst equally between the candidates.
Don’t you think the two popular candidates from the North, Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party and Rabiu Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria Peoples Party will divide the votes, while the rest may go to other candidates?
The candidates coming from the North, in my opinion, are rarely going to be on the ballot. They will split the vote in the North and chances are that the chunk of votes Tinubu will get from the voters in the North will be higher than those of the other strong three candidates. The three people being mentioned are very strong contenders. The possibility is that the votes in the North will be split into so many places. If that happens, the likelihood is that the chunk of votes will go to Tinubu compared to any one of them. He is likely to get more votes than any of them. Apart from that, I can see Tinubu holding rallies all over the country. I don’t see any of the people you mentioned making the same efforts he is making.
You have said in the past that the Buhari regime does not have the capacity and competence to turn the country around, do you think that may work against the candidate of his party?
Right from the time Buhari became the President I was asked of my expectations and I said I didn’t think that Buhari had the capacity and competence to make much difference in Nigeria. Thank God it is not something that I wish for, but today, after about eight years of Buhari’s rule, we still have not really changed for the better. The truth is that the foreign exchange rate has worsened from the time Buhari took over to the present day. The market in Nigeria today is not as versatile as it was at the time Buhari came in. There is less economic activity in Nigeria. The economy of Nigeria now, eight years after Buhari took over power, is nothing to be compared to what it was before he arrived.
Do you think those issues will affect Tinubu’s chances since he and Buhari are of the same party?
Yes, Nigerians are suffering but I don’t think they will hold Tinubu responsible for it, because he is not the one ruling Nigeria.
The leader of the Yoruba socio-political organisation, Afenifere, Chief Ayo Adebanjo, said the North would not vote for Tinubu. What do you make of that assertion?
Tinubu does not require the totality of the votes to win. What he requires is 25 per cent of the total votes cast in the 36 states of the federation. Two-thirds of the 36 states of the federation will give you 24 states. Tinubu is from the South-West and I think that South-West and two other states from the South, making eight, are likely to give him 25 per cent. Also, 10 states from the North will give him 25 per cent, while the additional six to make 24 he will get from the remaining states in the South.
Is there a consensus by northern elders over whom they are supporting, because many people feel they could support Atiku based on ethnic considerations?
There has never been a consensus on voting in northern Nigeria since Nigeria became a republic. I will remind you that because of the emergence of splinter parties, the then Northern People’s Congress would not have been the ruling party in northern Nigeria in the First Republic. Other parties included the Action Group. There were about eight of them that were state movements and there were about eight to 10 splinter and smaller political parties in the First Republic. This was the reason why the NPC was able to get the majority of the numbers they had. If the smaller parties had not come together, they wouldn’t have given the NPC the choice to get a majority of the seats in the lower house of assembly.
Are you impressed with the ideas the candidates have exchanged, because there have been concerns over the political rhetoric and level of personal attacks?
One thing I am impressed about is that till today, about three weeks to the elections, there are no peculiar security challenges. The problems we have are armed robbery and kidnapping of people here and there.
But there are attacks on INEC facilities and some people have said that’s an indication that the general elections may be violent or some people are trying to stop the polls from holding?
The forthcoming general election is one where the President, governors and others will be elected, so it is not for the President alone. When you are going to address issues in society, you should concentrate on the majority versus the minority. So far, the attacks only happened in a few states. If it is happening all over the country, that is something else.
People have said Peter Obi, the candidate of the Labour Party, may win the presidential election, given the support he has enjoyed and the belief that the APC and the PDP have failed Nigerians. Do you think he can win the election?
This election is not about social media. It is about people going to cast their votes. How many of the people in the social media will vote? A lot of them are just deceiving themselves.
Source: The Punch
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